Discussion:
Berlin Airshow orders
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JF Mezei
2010-06-10 19:56:47 UTC
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Stumbled onto this:

Emirates has placed an order for 32 (yes, thirty two) A380s. This
should keep the A380 production line going for another 4 years.


Finnair plavred order for 5 A321ER aircrafts. (since when did the 321
have an ER variant ?). This is to replace some 757s. This variant will
have "shaklet" wingtips that cust fuel consumption by 4% (or so claims
Airbus).

Germania sigfned an MOU to buy 5 A319s.


Did Boeing get any sales ? It had been expected that Farnborough in July
would get the big sales.



Emirates now has 90 A380s on order.

Airbus claims that by ordering mroe A380s, Emirates, which has operated
the beast for over a year, confirms that the aircraft has the right
performance/efficiency etc. Personally, I take Emirate's orders with a
grain of salt. Seeing a conservative airline such as BA increase its
orders for the 380 would be a greater show of confidence.

Somehow, Emirates appears to operate in a different parralel universe
when it comes to finances so I am not sure its order is reflective of
what other airlines will be doing.



In totally unrelated news, Air Canada announced that it was going to buy
back some of the 319s aircraft on leases. This is a definitive change
in direction as Air Canada had sold off all of its fleet on leaseback
arrangements to get cash during the 1990s and in early 2000s to manage
its bankrupcy.
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JF Mezei
2010-06-10 20:06:58 UTC
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BTW, As of December 2009:

A380 ORDERS
Air France 12
Air Austral 2
British Airways 12
China Southern 5
Emirates 58
Etihad 10
ILFC 10
Kingdom Holding Company 1
Kingfisher Airlines 5
Korean Airlines 10
Lufthansa 15
Malaysia Airlines 6
Qantas Airways 20
Qatar Airways 5
Singapore Airlines 19
Thai Airways 6
Virgin Atlantic 6
---------------------------
Total 202



So Airbus is inching towards the 250 mark, the original "break even"
target for the A380. But still quite some ways to go to get to the
estimated real break-even mark of 400 sales.

The big US mergers will create a Delta and Continental/United large
enough to justify operating 380s, but it remains to be seen if they will
drop their religious opposition to large aircraft.

I don't think Airbus will ever reach the 400 mark with the current model
of 380. When they unleash a 380 version 2 (akin to Boeing releasing the
747-400), they may get another sales boost, but many of those may be
replacement for then aging original A380s. (aka: 15-20 years from now).
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matt weber
2010-06-11 19:30:35 UTC
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On Thu, 10 Jun 2010 16:06:58 -0400, JF Mezei
Post by JF Mezei
A380 ORDERS
Air France 12
Air Austral 2
British Airways 12
China Southern 5
Emirates 58
Etihad 10
ILFC 10
Kingdom Holding Company 1
Kingfisher Airlines 5
Korean Airlines 10
Lufthansa 15
Malaysia Airlines 6
Qantas Airways 20
Qatar Airways 5
Singapore Airlines 19
Thai Airways 6
Virgin Atlantic 6
---------------------------
Total 202
So Airbus is inching towards the 250 mark, the original "break even"
target for the A380. But still quite some ways to go to get to the
estimated real break-even mark of 400 sales.
Whether it is really 400 or not depends upon both the revenue and the
costs of producing the A380. I am not sure even EADS really knows what
it costs to build an A380.

What we do know is that EK isn't paying anywhere near the list price
for A380's. There are periodic notices in the Wall Street Journal for
EK ETC's. These suggest that EK pays about $80 million each for
A330's, and $190 million each for A380's.

At $190 million each, breakeven on the A380 is probably the 21st of
Never.

Gallois went on record recently as saying the 'A380 program is under
control', what ever that really means.
Post by JF Mezei
The big US mergers will create a Delta and Continental/United large
enough to justify operating 380s, but it remains to be seen if they will
drop their religious opposition to large aircraft.
I don't think Airbus will ever reach the 400 mark with the current model
of 380. When they unleash a 380 version 2 (akin to Boeing releasing the
747-400), they may get another sales boost, but many of those may be
replacement for then aging original A380s. (aka: 15-20 years from now).
The real problem with the A380 program is the potential market is very
limited: Basically to Airlines that operate large numbers of flights
from hub airports with serious slot controls (even if artificial).
The failure of the A380 to win significant numbers of new sales and
new customers is bad news for the future of the program.

The A380's other problems are called the A350 and 787. Both aircraft
are 'hub busters', and will significantly reduce the need for hub to
hub flying.

I continue to think that the eventual salvation of the A380 costs is
in a product that Airbus doesn't seem to want to build...
The A370, an ultra large medium range twin. It would be very well
suited for the high volume medium haul routes within Asia...

Ditch 2 engines and about 350,000 pounds in MGTOW, and power it with a
pair of GE90-125B's (The GE90 core can provide 125,000 pounds thrust).
Just getting rid of 2 engines (and the related systems) would probably
cut 50,000+ pounds from the OEW.
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A Guy Called Tyketto
2010-06-11 07:26:10 UTC
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-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1
Post by JF Mezei
Emirates has placed an order for 32 (yes, thirty two) A380s. This
should keep the A380 production line going for another 4 years.
Finnair plavred order for 5 A321ER aircrafts. (since when did the 321
have an ER variant ?). This is to replace some 757s. This variant will
have "shaklet" wingtips that cust fuel consumption by 4% (or so claims
Airbus).
There is no -ER variant. This is just the normal A321, with the
sharklets made by Aviation Partners Boeing. FIN is the 'launch
customer' for this retrofit, like ANZ is the 'launch customer' for the
A320 with this option. This order did come at a price: FIN dropped
their order for two A330s for this.

BL.
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Brad Littlejohn | Email: ***@sbcglobal.net
Unix Systems Administrator, | ***@ozemail.com.au
Web + NewsMaster, BOFH.. Smeghead! :) | http://www.wizard.com/~tyketto
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A Guy Called Tyketto
2010-06-12 02:31:29 UTC
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Post by JF Mezei
Did Boeing get any sales ? It had been expected that Farnborough in July
would get the big sales.
So far from what I see, no. According to Flightglobal, Boeing
has amassed a whole 4 firm orders: a VIP B747-8i, a BBJ, and 2 B767s.
Nothing else reported.. yet.

BL.
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Brad Littlejohn | Email: ***@sbcglobal.net
Unix Systems Administrator, | ***@ozemail.com.au
Web + NewsMaster, BOFH.. Smeghead! :) | http://www.wizard.com/~tyketto
PGP: 1024D/E319F0BF 6980 AAD6 7329 E9E6 D569 F620 C819 199A E319 F0BF

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