ANA cancels A380 order

[A Guy Called Tyketto]

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http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUST28070720090105

ANA and JAL both are downsizing (lack of a better term),
because of the economic downturn. While the article calls it 'weakening
demand', is it truly demand that is weak? The B744Ds flying
domestically in Japan are pretty much full to capacity, to demand for
flights and seats on those jumbos aren't that weak. Internationally, it
may be true.

Sad thing is that they were Japan's only order for the A380..
luckily, they are still keeping it as an option should their economy
get better.

BL.
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[JF Mezei]

Post by A Guy Called Tyketto
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUST28070720090105

Well, they are cancelling plans to order 380s. Airbus won't decrease its
order book because of this since orders had not been placed.

Post by A Guy Called Tyketto
demand', is it truly demand that is weak? The B744Ds flying
domestically in Japan are pretty much full to capacity, to demand for
flights and seats on those jumbos aren't that weak. Internationally, it
may be true.

Big question is whether the 380 would perform well domestically, and how
quickly Airbus could build a version better rated for local service.
Apart from reoving unnecessary fuel tanks and changing some paperwork,
what else could Airbus do to make a domestic model of the 380 ?

Post by A Guy Called Tyketto
Sad thing is that they were Japan's only order for the A380..
luckily, they are still keeping it as an option should their economy
get better.

When you consider that 380s orders in 2009 will be rather shy to put it
nicely, ANA loses nothing by postponing commitment for the 380 since
first delivery won't change much if it orders in 2008 or 2010.

Another aspect is the prediuction that the US dollar will be very
unstable in the next year with the US printing billions and billions to
help pay for all those bank baliouts and economic stimulus. If the USD
tanks, Japan might be able to get some A380s for very cheap.


What would be interesting would be if China were to convince Airbus to
produce a true short haul model of the 380, and at that point, the
japanese airlines might consider it.

Lets face it, many A380 orders were inflated (especially Emirates) and
it is quite likely that we will see some airlines negotiating
postponenemnt of deliveries or outright cancellations over the next
couple of years.

I used to fear that fewer than 100 would get delivered. But with close
to 200 orders now, I think at least 150 would be delivered.

The big long term question is how long will the current A380 model last
before a new variant is produced with better engines and improved
weight. When you look at the 747, it took quite a while between the -200
and the -400.



.
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[Robin Johnson]

Post by JF Mezei

   http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUST28070720090105

Well, they are cancelling plans to order 380s. Airbus won't decrease its
order book because of this since orders had not been placed.

demand', is it truly demand that is weak? The B744Ds flying
domestically in Japan are pretty much full to capacity, to demand for
flights and seats on those jumbos aren't that weak. Internationally, it
may be true.

Big question is whether the 380 would perform well domestically, and how
quickly Airbus could build a version better rated for local service.
Apart from reoving unnecessary fuel tanks and changing some paperwork,
what else could Airbus do to make a domestic model of the 380 ?

The current model A380-800 is emphatically not suitable for short
domestic Japanese flights as it has too high a structure weight.
While it is possible that a version more suitable could be derived
from the existing aircraft, it would need to be stretched beyond the
850-passenger limit of the current aircraft, a considerable effort.

The main reason the two major lines went with 747s of various
models for these routes in the first place is now, or is about to be,
history. New runways at both of Tokyo's airports have eased the
slot pressure at Haneda, and Narita's is making slots available for
smaller aircraft on its largely-international routes..

The 777-300 is replacing 747Ds at both NH and JL, while both
lines have intercontinental routes for which the A388 may, in
time, be suitable.

It's noticeable that 20 years ago, almost all long-distance flights
from Japan operated through Tokyo. New airports at Kansai
(Osaka) and Centrair (Nagoya) have fragmented the market.

I expect Qantas to order more A388s soon, possibly more than
the four for which they have options. The 20 currently on order
are not enough to replace the 4-5 current daily trans-Pacific
and 5 current daily European rotations from Sydney and
Melbourne. The 787s, when they arrive, will likely operate to
South America, South Africa, and many shorter routes.

Post by JF Mezei

   Sad thing is that they were Japan's only order for the A380..

There were no Japanese orders.

Robin Johnson
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