Post by AdenOne
Air France, Air Canada, Emirates, Cathay, have all offloaded either
all or most of their A330s or A340s or both and replaced them with
B777s or have ordered 777s to replace the Airbuses. Who will be next?
Well, it isn't correct to speak in the past tense. In the case of Air Canada,
the 340s will be first to go. However, it also depends on the health of the
industry. If the airline opens new routes or increases frequency on an existing
route, the 340s may stay with AC for longer period. And AC is likely to ditch
its 767s before the 330s.
When you look at the fleet of old 767s out there, it seems to me that airlines
will want to replace those before the 330s.
Another aspect to consider: While some "Airbus" airlines such as AC have already
made their irreversible choice, there are still a number of airlines that
haven't made any commitments for next generation aircraft.
At the time AC made its decision, all airbus could offer were plans for the 350
V1.0 which was just a 330 with GEnx engines. (it wasn't even launched yet). So
it was really a no brainer for any airline needing to order in that time frame.
AC's cedit was good having just exited bankrupcy and it still had assets it
could sell off (Aeroplan, Jazz and ACTS). It was probably a wise choice to get
all the commitments and financing done at that time instead of waiting a number
of years at which point all 3 units will have been sold/spun off and AC won't
have any assets anymore).
Today however, an airline needing to make a decision needs to take a closer look
at Airbus' current offering because it comes close enough to the 787 to warrant
taking a good look at. And while there may be debates on whether there might be
yet another relaunch of the 350 (this time with single piece fuselage sections
like the 787), it is clear that a relaunch would end up being an improvement.
Finnair reconfirmed its 350 order because for the same price as it had committed
before, it was now getting a better and bigger aircraft.
Once US Air realises it isn't going to succeed in buying Delta, it will have to
also finalise what it will do with its order of 350 V2.0.
In the end though, I suspect that the 350 won't gain serious momentum until
Airbus admits it is going with single piece fuselage barrel sections. If there
is general consensus that it is inevitable, then Airbus should just announce it
now and get working on it.
Post by AdenOne
Lufthansa elected B747-8i over more A380s, could it ever order 777s?
For mid-size wide-bodies, one must not forget that LH now owns Swiss. And it is
quite possible that the addition of the Swiss fleet may give LH a few more years
of growth enabling LH to delay a decision on replacing the mid-size widebody fleet.
Also don't forget that LH is getting some "free" A330s as compensation for the
KLM-AirFrance is more interesting. KLM is replacing its MD-11s with A330s. But
that does not preclude a major switch to Boeing later on. Qantas accepted 330s
and then decided to go on a 787 buying binge.
In the current political climate, it would be unthinkable for Air France to
place a non-Airbus order. So it is quite likely to see AF delay serious fleet
renewall decisions until the climate has become a bit more quiet in France.
Also to consider: Boeing has a large set of obvious orders to come from AA, DL
and possibly UA (with CO probably increasing its orders a few more times). These
orders will load up the Boeing order book and delivery slots, and will make the
A350's delays less of an issue for other airlines. And it will also make Boeing
less agressive with pricing since its 787 is in greater demand and will have
hard performance numbers because it will be in true commerecial use.
If Airbus can give its 350 credibility and really start to move ahead with it
with a real schedule, specs etc, then I think that Boeing will have a tougher
time winning what is left in the current fleet replacement market. It really had
it easy until now with esentially no competition since Airbus' virtual specs and
promises didn't even come close to Boeing's more credible specs/promises.
misc.travel.air-industry is a moderated newsgroup. Please mail messages to
***@airinfo.aero, and see http://mtai.airinfo.aero for the FAQ and policies.