Will the 747-8 fly before the 787 ?

[JF Mezei]

On thursday, Boeing Announced that the first 747-8 has left the factory
and will be painted shortly and begin preparations for flight test.

Would it be fair to state that this plane can't expect first flight to
happen before February ? Or is it possible that they are closer to
first flight with just a few weeks of ground testing before they go for
first flight ?

Here is a snippet on 747-8 orders:
Boeing has secured 105 orders for the 747-8, 78 of which are orders for
the new freighter. Cargolux, Nippon Cargo Airlines, AirBridgeCargo
Airlines, Atlas Air, Cathay Pacific, Dubai Aerospace Enterprise,
Emirates SkyCargo, Guggenheim and Korean Air all have placed orders for
the 747-8 Freighter.

As for the 787, Boeing announced that they have just completed the
side-of-body modifications on aircraft #1, but must complete work on the
static test aircraft for a replay fo the static tests before it can
proceed with flight test preparations on #1.

(I would have thought that Boeing would have worked on the static
aircraft first so that it could perform the tests on it while working to
install on aircraft #1).

Boeing said it is still confident aircraft #1 will fly before end of
year. But how long will it take for it to finish work and do the static
tests on the static aircraft ?

Either way, once both the 747 and 787 flight testing begins, it will
finally show some positive movement at Boeing. From then on, the bad
news will be Boeing's inability to ramp up 787 production and further
delays.

Hopefully Boeing will have great performance news early into the flight
testing programme.


Is it a no brainer that 787 will fly first, or would some make bets on
whyetyer 747-8 or 787 will fly first ?
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[John Levine]

Post by JF Mezei
Is it a no brainer that 787 will fly first, or would some make bets on
whyetyer 747-8 or 787 will fly first ?

Today's WSJ says there's a new problem in the 787 with cracks around
bolt holes. Maybe it's minor, maybe not.

http://www.emailthis.clickability.com/et/emailThis?clickMap=viewThis&etMailToID=156610970&pt=Y
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[JF Mezei]

Post by John Levine
Today's WSJ says there's a new problem in the 787 with cracks around
bolt holes. Maybe it's minor, maybe not.
http://www.emailthis.clickability.com/et/emailThis?clickMap=viewThis&etMailToID=156610970&pt=Y

The way the article was worded, they seemed to raise doubts on the long
term durability of the aircraft, and wether cracks/delamination might
begin at a young age.

With many airlines having bet their business on the 787 (Air Canada for
instance), having frequent "recalls" to ground the fleet until
inspections are completed would be disastrous. Initially, the FAA may
ground the 787s until inspections are done, but eventually, there will
be too many 787s in the air and groundings would be unthinkable (think:
737 rudder problem).

Even if there are no groundings, if the plane requires frequent
inspections to ensure no delamination happens, this could end up costly
to airlines, especially since Boing had put some value on the fact that
a carbon aircraft would require less maintenance.

What remains to be seen is whether tho problems will happen only on the
first batch of "beta" aircraft, and once the process is industrialised,
production will spit out airfraft without defects, or whether these
glitches will haunt the aircraft production for years to come.

Remember that aircraft 1 as been "worked on" way too many times and
probably no longer represents what a production aircraft would be like.
I still maintain Boeing should have scrapped that aircraft after initial
assembly discovered too many flaws, fixed the design, and asked the
suppliers to build a new #1 and do it right (with full outfitting so no
travel work would be required).
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[Uwe Klein]

Post by JF Mezei
As for the 787, Boeing announced that they have just completed the
side-of-body modifications on aircraft #1, but must complete work on the
static test aircraft for a replay fo the static tests before it can
proceed with flight test preparations on #1.

"At Boeing, Dreamliner Fix Turns Up New Glitch"
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704576204574531651711236212.html
extract only, found via airliners.net, nearly complete quote here:
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/4604832/#61

Post by JF Mezei
(I would have thought that Boeing would have worked on the static
aircraft first so that it could perform the tests on it while working to
install on aircraft #1).

I would have done the prepping order similarly.
But we are noob, so ...

Post by JF Mezei
Boeing said it is still confident aircraft #1 will fly before end of
year. But how long will it take for it to finish work and do the static
tests on the static aircraft ?
Either way, once both the 747 and 787 flight testing begins, it will
finally show some positive movement at Boeing. From then on, the bad
news will be Boeing's inability to ramp up 787 production and further
delays.
Hopefully Boeing will have great performance news early into the flight
testing programme.

Hope: last man standing,
... right ;-)

Post by JF Mezei
Is it a no brainer that 787 will fly first, or would some make bets on
whyetyer 747-8 or 787 will fly first ?

IMHO all Projects at Boeing currently are too thoroughly jinxed
to facilitate any sane predictions.
B787, B747-8*, and the italian tankers just got another round on the caroussel too.
http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4366294

uwe
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