Paris Air Show

[JF Mezei]

I know the market is depressed but...

This is the 100th Paris Air Show, so this should be noted.

It was said that if they rack up more than 100 net orders, it will be
considered a success.


Airbus has sold 24 to Qatar. No susprise there.

The susprise may be Sukhoi. It appears that its Superjet 100 is th
darling of the show and has sold 30 to a hungarian airline.
http://www.sukhoi.org/eng/

I think Embraer has made a sale too, but their booth has no aircraft.


Louis Gallois (EADS) has said that expansion plans are on hold. They had
planned to grow via acquisitions.

As you recall, when Airbus launched the current version of its 350, it
hadn't really settled the financing and said it would look into it later
on. It appears that "later on" is now. Boeing is balking at Airbus
getting government loans and it isn't a given that all of governments
will give Airbus what it wants.

I have to wonder if the development of the 350 hasn't reached a point
where, if they don't get financing, they won't be able to proceed at
normal pace and deliver on time.
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[Roland Perry]

Post by JF Mezei
I know the market is depressed but...
This is the 100th Paris Air Show, so this should be noted.
It was said that if they rack up more than 100 net orders, it will be
considered a success.
Airbus has sold 24 to Qatar. No susprise there.
The susprise may be Sukhoi. It appears that its Superjet 100 is th
darling of the show and has sold 30 to a hungarian airline.
http://www.sukhoi.org/eng/
I think Embraer has made a sale too, but their booth has no aircraft.

"So far this year, Boeing — which is cutting 10,000 jobs — has taken
orders for 73 planes, but with cancellations of 66, the net order intake
is only 7 jets." -AP.

[JF Mezei]

Post by Roland Perry
"So far this year, Boeing — which is cutting 10,000 jobs — has taken
orders for 73 planes, but with cancellations of 66, the net order intake
is only 7 jets." -AP.

That is quite an improvement ! Back in april, they were in negative net
orders for the year (between -0 and -20, can't recall).

One reporter did make an important point though. Both Airbus and Boeing
have record order books/backlogs, and in the end, what the lack of
orders this year still makes those order books very healthy. The concern
will be how many of this year's deliveries will be defered because
deliveries are what bring in the cash.

Qantas deffering 4 A380s at roughly $200 million each is no small change
for Airbus that needs cash to fund the 350 development.

On the other hand, the longer Airbus can take to deliver the 200 or so
A380 orders, the longer they can keep the production line running.

Boeing just announced it is confident it can maintain this year's
deliveries, but is uncertain about 2010.

I think that the 787s are probably fairly safe from the economic turmoil
since those aircraft are so significantly better than the old 767s that
airlines will probably want them delivered ASAP so they can start saving
on fuel costs and maintenance.

But for 737/320s, I think that most airlines have long ago gotten rid of
first generation narrowbody aircraft and most outstanding orders would
be for growth, and those would be more likely to see
cancellations/defferals.

On the other hand, American announced not long ago that it is to take up
more optiosn on the 737s. It seems that they are replacing a number of
MD80s with 737s.

Of course, there is the large invisible elephant in the room: the rumour
that Ryannair would be placing an order for some 300 aircraft. Since
both Airbus and Boeing are at record low net order numbers, whoever gets
the 300 orders would be WAY ahead of its competitor. With 300 aircraft,
Ryannair might be able to cover every small town between London and
Shanghai.
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[JF Mezei]

Silly question:

Is it possible that this year, with a drought for net orders for
Boeing/Airbus, that Bombardier and Embraer might become the top 2 civil
aircraft makers ?

Or is the top spot measured in dollar amounts instead of number of units ?
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